Newgen Software Share Price: ₹527 | AI Workflow Play | vs TCS | Hidden IT Gem?
Newgen Software at ₹527 (down 62% from peak). Low-code AI platform, BFSI focus, but profit dropped 29%. Complete analysis vs TCS/Infosys, valuation, comeback potential.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Read our complete Financial Disclaimer.
Newgen Software Share Price: The AI Workflow Stock Nobody's Talking About
You know what's weird about the Indian IT sector?
Everyone obsesses over TCS, Infosys, Wipro - the ₹10 lakh crore giants.
But there's this ₹7,295 crore company called Newgen Software that's been quietly building AI-powered workflow automation platforms for banks and insurance companies.
February 2026, stock is at ₹527.
Down a brutal 62% from its 52-week high. Down 46% in just one year.
The moment I saw their Q3 numbers, one thing jumped out - profit dropped 29% year-on-year. Revenue grew 5%, but profit crashed.
While TCS and Infosys are fighting for every basis point of margin, Newgen lost margin. Operating expenses shot up. Something's not adding up.
The question everyone's asking: Is this a temporary blip in a solid AI automation story? Or is Newgen struggling to compete with giants in an AI-disrupted world?
Here's my brutally honest breakdown. I researched this like I'm putting my own money in. No fluff, just data and reality checks.
Current Stock Status (February 19, 2026)
Current Price: ₹527.05 (IndMoney data) 52-Week High: ₹1,378 (hit in early 2025) 52-Week Low: ₹443.40 Market Cap: ₹7,295 crore (tiny vs TCS's ₹10.57 lakh crore) P/E Ratio: ~24 (in line with IT sector) Revenue (FY25): ₹1,552 crore Profit (FY25): ₹303 crore
Recent performance:
- 1 year: -46.1% (market cap collapsed)
- Down 62% from 52-week high
- Just surged 12.9% on Feb 17 after hitting 52-week low (dead cat bounce or reversal?)
Translation: This stock has been absolutely murdered. Investors fled. But there's always a reason.
Let me dig into why before we talk about what to do.
What is Newgen Software? (The Company Nobody Explains Well)
Newgen Software Technologies is a product company (not services like TCS). They build software platforms that companies buy/license.
Main product: NewgenONE Platform
Think of it as a toolkit for enterprises to:
- Automate workflows (loan approvals, insurance claims, customer onboarding)
- Manage documents (scan, store, retrieve billions of PDFs)
- Build low-code apps (business users create apps without coding)
- Add AI intelligence (OCR, chatbots, predictive analytics)
Who buys it?
- Banks (HDFC, ICICI, Axis for loan processing)
- Insurance companies (claim automation)
- Government agencies (citizen services, records management)
- Telecom, healthcare, retail (smaller segments)
Revenue model:
- License sales (upfront fee to use software)
- Annual maintenance (recurring revenue - this is the gold)
- Implementation services (consulting to set it up)
What makes them different from TCS/Infosys:
- TCS sells people's time (billable hours)
- Newgen sells software product (one-time build, sell many times)
The dream: High recurring revenue (80% of sales are repeat customers), scalable margins (don't need to hire 100,000 engineers).
The reality: Product business is lumpy (one bad quarter tanks stock), and they're competing with global giants (Microsoft Power Automate, Salesforce, ServiceNow).
Headquarters: Delhi NCR (Noida) Founded: 1992 (32 years old - older than Infosys!) Employees: ~4,000 (tiny vs TCS's 6 lakh) Global presence: 77 offices across 30 countries
Source: Screener fundamentals
Q3 FY26 Results: The Profit Crash That Spooked Investors
Let's cut to the chase. Here's what happened in October-December 2025:
The Numbers (Ugly Truth)
| Metric | Q3 FY26 | Q3 FY25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹400.28 cr | ₹381.11 cr | +5.03% |
| Net Profit | ₹62.82 cr | ₹89.00 cr | -29.42% |
| Operating Margin | ~18-20% (est.) | ~23-25% (est.) | Compression |
Source: ScanX Q3 results
Wait, revenue grew 5% but profit crashed 29%?
Yes. This is the red flag.
What Went Wrong
1. Operating Expenses Exploded
- R&D costs (AI product development)
- Sales & marketing (trying to win deals from TCS/Infosys)
- Employee costs (wage inflation, retention bonuses)
2. Deal Conversion Delays
- Large deals stuck in pipeline (procurement delays)
- Clients postponing decisions (macro uncertainty)
- Longer sales cycles (6-12 months)
3. Competition Intensified
- Microsoft Power Automate is free with Office 365 (hard to compete)
- Salesforce, ServiceNow undercutting on price
- TCS, Infosys bundling workflow automation with services
4. Margin Pressure
- Had to discount to win deals
- Implementation services (low margin) grew faster than license sales (high margin)
The Silver Lining (If You Squint)
Q1 FY26 was actually decent:
- Revenue: ₹350.05 crore
- Net Profit: ₹49.72 crore
Full-year picture (FY25):
- Revenue: ₹1,552 crore
- Profit: ₹303 crore
- Not terrible, just Q3 was unusually weak
Management's explanation: "Investments in next-gen AI products will pay off in FY27-28."
Investor's question: Or are you burning cash fighting giants you can't beat?
The AI Workflow Story: Real or Hype?
Newgen is pitching itself as AI-first low-code platform. Let's test if this holds water.
What Newgen Offers in AI
NewgenONE AI Platform features:
- Intelligent Document Processing (OCR + AI to extract data from scanned forms)
- Agentic AI (autonomous agents that handle tasks end-to-end)
- Process Automation (RPA + AI decision-making)
- Omnichannel Engagement (chatbots, voice bots)
Real-world use case:
- Bank loan application comes in (scanned docs)
- Newgen AI extracts data (income proof, address, employment)
- Workflow routes to right approver based on risk score
- Decision made in 2 hours (vs 2 days manual)
This is valuable. Banks pay ₹50 lakh - 5 crore for this kind of automation.
The Competitive Moat Question
Do they have defensibility? Let's compare:
| Feature | Newgen | Microsoft Power Automate | Salesforce | TCS iON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₹₹₹ (enterprise license) | ₹ (bundled with Office) | ₹₹₹₹ (expensive) | ₹₹ (services-led) |
| AI Capability | Strong (custom models) | Good (Azure AI) | Excellent (Einstein AI) | Moderate |
| BFSI Focus | Deep (30 years) | Generic | Generic | Growing |
| Low-Code | Yes (NewgenONE) | Yes (Power Apps) | Yes (Lightning) | Limited |
| Indian Compliance | Excellent (RBI, Aadhaar) | Moderate | Moderate | Excellent |
Newgen's moat:
- BFSI domain expertise (they understand banking regulations deeply)
- Indian market knowledge (Aadhaar integration, RBI compliance)
- Hybrid cloud (many Indian banks can't go full cloud - Newgen offers on-premise)
But moat is narrowing:
- Microsoft is free for existing Office users (70% of enterprises already have it)
- Salesforce has 10x the R&D budget
- TCS can bundle workflow automation with consulting (Newgen can't match that)
The uncomfortable truth: Newgen's moat was deep in 2010. In 2026, it's a slowly shrinking puddle.
The AI Disruption Irony
Newgen sells AI workflow automation.
But AI is also disrupting Newgen's business:
- ChatGPT Enterprise can automate workflows (no Newgen needed)
- Microsoft Copilot can build low-code apps (no Newgen needed)
- Open-source AI models can process documents (no Newgen needed)
This is the TCS problem all over again: The thing you're selling is also threatening your existence.
How Newgen is responding:
- Integrating OpenAI, Claude APIs into NewgenONE (becoming a wrapper)
- Focusing on compliance and security (enterprises won't use raw ChatGPT for loan approvals)
- Emphasizing domain-specific AI (banking AI, insurance AI)
Will this work? Maybe for 3-5 years. Long-term (10 years), low-code platforms might commoditize.
Source: Newgen AI vision 2026
BFSI Focus: Strength or Concentration Risk?
Newgen gets 50-60% revenue from BFSI sector (Banking, Financial Services, Insurance).
Top clients (publicly known):
- HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank (India)
- Emirates NBD, QNB (Middle East)
- Barclays, HSBC (some deployments)
Why BFSI loves Newgen:
- Compliance-ready (RBI, SEBI, IRDAI certified)
- Security paranoia (banks won't use public cloud SaaS - Newgen offers on-premise)
- Legacy integration (can plug into old mainframe systems)
The problem with BFSI concentration:
1. BFSI IT budgets are shrinking
- Interest rate impact (bank margins under pressure)
- US recession fears (50% of Newgen revenue is international, much of it BFSI)
- Banks are consolidating vendors (preferring TCS one-stop-shop over niche players)
2. Longer sales cycles
- Enterprise BFSI deals take 12-18 months (RFP, PoC, negotiations)
- One delayed deal = quarter missed
3. Renewals at risk
- If Microsoft offers "good enough" automation free, why pay Newgen ₹2 crore/year?
Recent proof: Q3 FY26 profit drop happened because deal closures delayed (likely BFSI clients postponing decisions).
Diversification efforts:
- Government (15-20% revenue) - growing but slow procurement
- Healthcare, telecom (10-15%) - small
- Not enough to offset BFSI weakness
My take: BFSI focus was strength in 2015-2020. In 2026, it's concentration risk as banks tighten budgets.
Source: Orunodoi Newgen analysis
Newgen vs TCS vs Infosys: David vs Goliaths
Everyone keeps asking: "Why buy Newgen when I can buy TCS?"
Fair question. Let me break it down.
| Metric | Newgen | TCS | Infosys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | ₹7,295 cr | ₹10.57 lakh cr | ₹6.8 lakh cr |
| Revenue (Q3) | ₹400 cr | ₹64,479 cr | ₹45,479 cr |
| Net Profit (Q3) | ₹63 cr | ₹12,224 cr | ₹7,033 cr |
| Profit Margin | 15.7% | 18.9% | 15.5% |
| P/E Ratio | ~24 | 20.25 | 21.07 |
| Business Model | Product (software license) | Services (billable hours) | Services + some product |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 5% | 5.3% | 9% |
| AI Revenue | Not disclosed clearly | $1.8 billion | $900 million |
| Dividend Yield | Minimal (~0.5%) | 3.2% | 2.8% |
Source: TickerTape data and previous TCS research
Newgen Wins On:
Nothing significant, honestly.
Okay, maybe:
- Product business model (theoretically more scalable than services)
- Smaller size (easier to double revenue than TCS doubling)
- BFSI specialization (deeper than TCS's broad approach)
TCS/Infosys Win On:
Pretty much everything:
1. Scale
- TCS revenue is 160x Newgen
- Can underprice Newgen and not feel it
2. Brand Trust
- "Nobody got fired for hiring TCS"
- Newgen has to fight for credibility every deal
3. One-Stop-Shop
- TCS offers software + implementation + support + cloud migration
- Newgen is just software (clients need to hire someone else for implementation)
4. Financial Stability
- TCS profit margin 18.9% vs Newgen 15.7%
- TCS has ₹40,000 crore cash (Newgen has ₹600-700 crore)
5. Dividend
- TCS pays 3.2% yield, Infosys 2.8%
- Newgen pays almost nothing (needs cash for growth)
6. AI Investment
- TCS spends $500M on AI R&D
- Newgen spends ₹100-150 crore (1/30th)
The Honest Comparison
TCS is a Honda Civic - reliable, boring, gets you from A to B safely.
Newgen is a Tata Nexon EV - interesting concept, good features, but unproven long-term reliability and smaller service network.
Would you bet your retirement on Nexon over Civic? Probably not.
Would you bet ₹50,000 fun money on Nexon hoping it 5x? Maybe.
That's Newgen vs TCS.
For more IT sector analysis, read our TCS deep dive.
Valuation: Cheap or Value Trap?
P/E Ratio: 24
Let's put this in context.
Compare with IT Sector
| Company | P/E Ratio | Business | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newgen | 24 | Product (workflow automation) | 5% (Q3) |
| TCS | 20.25 | Services (IT outsourcing) | 5.3% |
| Infosys | 21.07 | Services + digital | 9% |
| HCL Tech | 23-25 | Services + products | 6-7% |
| Persistent Systems | 18 | Niche IT services | 12-15% |
Newgen at P/E 24 is expensive compared to TCS (20.25) and Infosys (21.07).
Why should Newgen get premium P/E when it's:
- Growing slower (5% vs Infosys 9%)
- Smaller scale (more risky)
- Lower margins (15.7% vs TCS 18.9%)
Answer: It shouldn't. Market is pricing in hope that AI story plays out.
PEG Ratio (Price-to-Earnings-Growth)
Newgen: P/E 24 ÷ Growth 5% = PEG 4.8 (expensive!) TCS: P/E 20.25 ÷ Growth 5.3% = PEG 3.8 Infosys: P/E 21.07 ÷ Growth 9% = PEG 2.3 (most attractive)
Rule of thumb: PEG below 1.5 is cheap, 1.5-2.5 is fair, above 3 is expensive.
Newgen at PEG 4.8 is expensive unless growth reaccelerates to 15-20% (which Q3 numbers don't suggest).
DCF Quick Check: What's Fair Value?
Current earnings: ₹303 crore annually (FY25) Market cap: ₹7,295 crore P/E: 24
Bear case (growth stays 5%, margins compress):
- Earnings in FY27: ₹315 crore (slow growth)
- Fair P/E: 18 (product company with low growth)
- Fair value: ₹5,670 crore market cap = ₹420/share
- Downside: 20% from ₹527
Base case (growth recovers to 10%, margins stable):
- Earnings in FY27: ₹360 crore
- Fair P/E: 22
- Fair value: ₹7,920 crore = ₹588/share
- Upside: 12% from ₹527
Bull case (AI story plays out, 20% growth):
- Earnings in FY27: ₹430 crore
- Fair P/E: 28 (premium for growth)
- Fair value: ₹12,040 crore = ₹894/share
- Upside: 70% from ₹527
My assessment: At ₹527, Newgen is fairly valued to slightly expensive unless bull case materializes.
Attractive entry: ₹400-450 (if it falls another 15-20%) Fair value range: ₹480-580 Expensive above: ₹650+
Analyst Targets
According to search results, average 12-month target: ₹845 (60% upside).
4 analysts say BUY, 0 say SELL.
My reaction: Analysts are optimistic. I'm skeptical. Q3 results don't support ₹845 target unless something dramatically changes.
Risks: What Could Sink This Stock Further
Risk 1: Microsoft Power Automate Goes Free for All
Biggest existential threat.
What if Microsoft makes Power Automate completely free (currently free with certain Office 365 tiers, but limited)?
Impact:
- Newgen's ₹2-5 crore license deals evaporate
- Enterprises say "good enough" to Microsoft (even if Newgen is better)
- Revenue crashes 30-40%
Probability: 30-40% in next 3 years (Microsoft is aggressive on bundling)
Newgen's defense: "We're more BFSI-compliant, more customizable."
Reality: Most enterprises will take 80% solution for free over 100% solution for ₹3 crore.
Risk 2: Deal Pipeline Dries Up
Newgen's revenue is lumpy (few large deals vs many small).
If 2-3 large deals (₹5-10 crore each) delay by 6 months:
- Q4 FY26 misses estimates
- Stock falls another 20-30%
- Analyst downgrades follow
Recent proof: Q3 profit drop was largely due to deal delays.
Probability: 50-60% (macro uncertainty, BFSI budget cuts)
Risk 3: Margin Compression Continues
Q3 showed margin squeeze (operating expenses up, revenue flat).
If this trend continues:
- FY27 margins drop from 20% to 15%
- Profit growth turns negative
- Stock re-rates from P/E 24 to P/E 15 = ₹330/share (37% downside)
Why margins could compress:
- Wage inflation (talent is expensive)
- Sales costs rising (harder to win deals)
- Discounting to compete with giants
Probability: 40-50%
Risk 4: AI Commoditizes Low-Code
By 2028-30, AI might let anyone build apps by talking to ChatGPT.
"Hey Claude, build me a loan approval workflow."
Boom, done. No Newgen needed.
This is 5-10 year risk, not immediate. But directionally threatening.
Probability: 60-70% long-term (low-code gets easier, Newgen's value prop weakens)
Risk 5: Key Client Loss
If HDFC or ICICI (rumored large clients) switch to TCS or Microsoft:
- Revenue hit: ₹50-100 crore annually
- Market panic (if key client leaves, others might follow)
- Stock crashes 30-40%
Probability: 20-30% (low but not zero)
Should You Buy Newgen Software at ₹527?
Here's my decision framework.
BUY if:
1. You're a High-Risk Growth Investor
- Willing to bet on AI workflow thesis
- Can stomach another 30-40% downside
- 3-5 year horizon (not short-term trade)
2. You Believe in India BFSI Digitization
- Banks will keep spending on automation
- Newgen's domain expertise is defensible
- Microsoft won't win everything
3. You're Portfolio Diversifying
- Have 80% in large-caps (TCS, HDFC Bank)
- Want 5-10% in mid-cap IT bets
- Newgen + Persistent + Coforge = basket approach
4. You're Contrarian
- Stock down 62% from peak (panic selling)
- Q3 weakness might be one-time (Q4 could surprise)
- Analyst targets at ₹845 (60% upside)
My buy price: ₹400-450 (wait for another 15-20% dip, strong support at ₹400)
HOLD if:
1. You Bought Below ₹350
- You're up 50%+
- Let it ride (could recover to ₹700-800 if AI thesis plays out)
2. You're Long-Term (7-10 Years)
- Betting on eventual moat in BFSI workflow automation
- Product business has higher ceiling than services
- Willing to ride volatility
SELL if:
1. You Bought at ₹800-1,200 (Peak)
- You're down 50-60%
- Accept loss, redeploy to stabler IT stocks (TCS, Persistent)
- Tax loss harvesting
2. You Need Stability
- Can't sleep with 30% swings quarterly
- Prefer dividend income (Newgen pays almost nothing)
- Move to TCS/Infosys (3% dividend yield, more stable)
3. You See Better Opportunities
- Persistent Systems at P/E 18 (cheaper, faster growth)
- TCS at 52-week low (defensive IT play)
- Infosys (9% growth vs Newgen's 5%)
4. You Don't Believe in AI Moat
- Think Microsoft will crush Newgen
- Low-code commoditization worries you
- Product business model is overrated in IT
My sell trigger: If stock breaks below ₹400 (52-week low area decisively), structural problem. Exit.
My Personal Decision
I'm passing on Newgen at ₹527 - not because the business is terrible, but risk-reward doesn't justify.
Why I'm skeptical:
- P/E 24 is expensive for 5% growth
- Q3 profit drop is worrying (not just one-time)
- Microsoft competition is existential (not just noise)
- BFSI concentration is risky (banks cutting budgets)
- Margin compression (operating leverage not working)
But I see the bull case: If you bought at ₹300-350 (early 2024), you're sitting on decent entry. Stock could recover to ₹700-800 if FY27 shows 15% revenue growth and margin recovery.
For most investors: Skip Newgen. Buy TCS or Infosys (safer IT play) or Persistent Systems (better mid-cap IT value).
For risk-takers: Put it on watchlist. If falls to ₹400-420, buy small position (₹25-30k out of ₹1 lakh).
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Newgen Software a good buy in 2026?
At ₹527 (down 62% from peak), Newgen offers high-risk, high-reward proposition. Q3 FY26 profit dropped 29% despite 5% revenue growth, indicating margin pressure and deal delays. P/E of 24 is expensive for 5% growth rate. Good for aggressive investors betting on AI workflow automation story with 3-5 year horizon. Not suitable for conservative investors seeking stability or dividend income. Better entry point would be ₹400-450. TCS/Infosys offer safer IT exposure with similar valuations but lower risk.
What is Newgen Software target price for 2026?
Analyst consensus target is ₹845 (60% upside from ₹527), with 4 analysts recommending buy and 0 sell. However, Q3 results don't support this optimism. Realistic targets: Bear case ₹420 (if margins compress further), Base case ₹580 (if growth recovers to 10%), Bull case ₹850-900 (if AI workflow thesis plays out with 20% growth). Fair value range: ₹480-580. Much depends on Q4 FY26 and FY27 execution. Upside exists but significant downside risk remains if BFSI budgets contract further.
Should I buy Newgen or TCS in 2026?
TCS for: stability, dividend yield 3.2%, lower risk, Tata brand trust, diversified client base, P/E 20.25. Newgen for: potential higher growth if AI story works, product business model (more scalable theoretically), BFSI specialization. TCS is safer choice for 80% of investors - proven track record, ₹10.57 lakh crore market cap, reliable dividends. Newgen is speculative bet suitable for 5-10% of equity portfolio if you believe in workflow automation niche. If forced to choose: TCS wins on every metric except potential growth upside. Or own both: 80% TCS + 20% Newgen for balanced IT exposure.
Will AI kill Newgen Software business?
AI is double-edged sword for Newgen. On one hand, they're selling AI-powered workflow automation (NewgenONE AI platform showing promise in BFSI). On other hand, Microsoft Power Automate + ChatGPT could commoditize low-code platforms by 2028-30. Near-term (3-5 years): Newgen survives by emphasizing BFSI compliance, security, domain expertise that generic AI can't replicate. Long-term (10 years): Risk of commoditization is real. Unlike TCS which has client relationships and legacy maintenance, Newgen's product can be replicated. Expect slower growth (5-10% vs historical 15%), margin pressure, but not complete disruption in next 5 years.
What is Newgen Software vs Infosys comparison?
Infosys dominates on every financial metric: ₹6.8 lakh crore market cap vs Newgen's ₹7,295 crore, 9% revenue growth vs Newgen's 5%, 15.5% profit margin vs Newgen's 15.7% (similar), P/E 21 vs Newgen's 24. Infosys offers diversification (not just BFSI), better AI investment ($900M revenue), 2.8% dividend yield vs Newgen's negligible. Newgen's only advantage is product business model (theoretically scalable) and BFSI niche focus. For 95% of investors, Infosys is superior choice - lower risk, proven execution, dividends. Newgen suitable only as small contrarian bet.
Is Newgen Software undervalued at current price?
At ₹527 with P/E 24 and PEG ratio 4.8, Newgen is not undervalued - it's fairly valued to slightly expensive. Q3 profit dropped 29% while revenue grew only 5%, indicating operational challenges. Compared to TCS (P/E 20.25) and Infosys (P/E 21.07) growing at similar/faster rates, Newgen doesn't deserve premium valuation. Undervalued entry would be ₹400-450 (P/E 18-19). Current price ₹527 already assumes recovery. Only undervalued if you believe in bull case: FY27 growth reaccelerates to 15-20% with margin recovery. Most likely scenario: stock trades ₹450-600 range for next 12 months.
What are Newgen Software's main competitors?
Global: Microsoft Power Automate (biggest threat - bundled free with Office 365), Salesforce, ServiceNow, Pega Systems, Appian. Indian: TCS (iON platform), Infosys, Tech Mahindra (workflow solutions). Newgen's edge: BFSI domain expertise, RBI/regulatory compliance, hybrid cloud deployment (many Indian banks won't go full cloud). Weakness: Microsoft's free offering is "good enough" for 70% of use cases. Salesforce has 10x R&D budget. TCS can bundle with consulting. Newgen is David fighting multiple Goliaths. Moat is narrowing as low-code platforms commoditize and AI makes automation easier.
Does Newgen Software pay dividends?
Newgen pays minimal dividends (~0.5% yield vs TCS 3.2%). Company retains most profits for growth - R&D investment in AI, sales expansion, product development. This is typical for growth-stage product companies. For income investors seeking dividends, Newgen is wrong choice - buy TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech instead (2.5-3.5% yields). For growth investors, low payout is acceptable if capital is deployed well into high-ROI projects. However, Q3's profit drop despite high retention raises question: Is retained capital generating adequate returns? Watch FY27 results to judge if low dividend strategy is justified.
My Final Take: Intriguing Story, Uncertain Execution
Newgen Software is that stock I want to love but can't fully commit to.
The bull case is seductive:
- AI workflow automation is massive TAM (total addressable market)
- Product business is more scalable than services
- BFSI digitization in India is multi-decade trend
- Stock down 62% from peak (value opportunity?)
But the execution concerns are real:
- Q3 profit dropped 29% (not a one-quarter blip if trend continues)
- Margins compressing (operating leverage not working)
- Microsoft offering 80% solution for free (existential threat)
- BFSI concentration (what if banks cut IT budgets 20%?)
My rating: 5.5/10 - Decent potential, but too many red flags to be confident.
What I'd do with ₹1 lakh:
Option A: Skip Newgen, put ₹50k TCS + ₹50k Persistent Systems (safer IT plays)
Option B: Put ₹20k in Newgen (speculative bet), ₹40k TCS, ₹40k Nifty 50 Index
Option C: Wait for ₹400-420, then buy ₹30k Newgen, rest in index fund
I'd choose Option A. The risk-reward at ₹527 doesn't excite me enough.
But if you bought at ₹350-400: Hold on. Could recover to ₹700-800 if AI thesis plays out. You're positioned for 2x upside.
If you bought at ₹1,000+: Consider cutting losses. Better opportunities exist (TCS at ₹2,909 offers similar upside with lower risk).
The bottom line: Newgen is a "show me" stock. Show me margin recovery in Q4. Show me 15% revenue growth in FY27. Show me you can compete with Microsoft.
Until then, it's watchlist, not buy list.
For more IT sector insights, read our TCS analysis and BHEL PSU breakdown.
For systematic investing approach, check our SIP guide.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Newgen Software Technologies is a publicly listed company; all data is from public sources. Stock markets are subject to risk, including loss of principal. Mid-cap IT stocks carry higher volatility than large-caps. The author does not own Newgen shares (disclosed for transparency). Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. AI impact projections are speculative. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. Opinions expressed are personal views based on analysis of public data.
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